quiksand
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Post by quiksand on May 16, 2023 10:15:17 GMT -5
I know there was some discussion somewhere on these forums (involving Nick and a couple others) during the 2059 draft when our J-E-T-S drafted kicker Paul Hall with our pick at 3.12. (This was my doing, squirrel was against it)
At the time, I think we ended up with split opinions about whether a draft pick that early could ever possibly be "worth it" on any kicker. I think that question is still fairly open.
I will submit an update on Hall as one data point in this discussion...
Paul Hall basically "worked out," he lived up to his sky-high apparent ratings, and in his 8th year now still sports a 91 Kicking Accuracy rating, and a 100 Kicking Power. I don't know how much risk we assume when targeting /P, nobody really studies it that i know of, so... he's at least a case of a guy who delivered on his apparent high ratings.
So, what have we gotten from him?
After 7 seasons: 90.6% on all FGs 79.0% on FGs >40 50% on FGs >50 (4 for 8, so a small sample)
94.9% on PATs
And if we really care, he was 6/7 overall and 4/4 >40 during the Jets' title run his rookie year... as we know "big moments" weigh heavily as we assess the value of real life kickers. Otherwise his postseason stats are a shade below his regular season stats.
My overall sense is that this guy is probably worth a few clicks upward in expected outcome of FGs, overall. If he's a 90% guy and the standard "good enough" kicker posts 85%, then he has yielded an extra 12 FGs or so in his time... probably shade that number up because of his effectiveness beyond 40yds, so maybe his net effect is something like... +8 points per season?
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quiksand
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Post by quiksand on May 16, 2023 10:17:35 GMT -5
I should add in that yes, we had him for three cheap seasons by virtue of drafting him, but he sought and received a fatter contract after that and we are paying him something like $9.3m this season (and roghly that since his 4th year)... so whatever cap advantage we had lasted only three years. We're more or less at market price... or maybe a guy like this would make $15-20m in a league like this without any artificial cap constraints? (Maybe I lean that way, now that I have typed it out... I suspect we are getting him under market a bit now as a captive player)
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Post by Sawblade300 on May 16, 2023 11:11:12 GMT -5
I don't see an issue draft a kicker that high. I would do it if my other positions were taken care of and there weren't any glaring needs at that time in the draft. Regardless of how good he looked, I don't know that I would draft a K over a skill position if there was a need on the team for said position. But if not, I would take one.
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Post by hildebrand on May 16, 2023 11:24:48 GMT -5
I think this is a very interesting topic, and I think I can provide something of the extreme contrast to what you guys have done. I have refused to draft K/P before the 7th round because I have trouble seeing any additional value to a highly drafted K/P vs. a UDFA.
In the same time frame that the Jets have had Hall, I have used 6 different kickers. Their combined stats (2050-2056) are: FG% = 87.9 PAT% = 94.4 40+% = 70 50+% = 50
I've only been to the playoffs twice in that span, so I don't think the playoffs stats are very comparable. The highly drafted Hall is statistically better in all aspects, but is the additional ~3-4 points per season that he brings enough justification for a 3rd round pick? I think his added value is probably more in the longer distance FGs (40+). The Jets are able to score more frequently and willing to take the chance at a FG where other teams may settle for a shorter punt to control field position.
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Post by bylanta on May 16, 2023 11:42:33 GMT -5
Hall's accuracy stats are inflated by an extremely conservative FG distance philosophy.
His 100 kick power is, to some degree, being wasted by this choice.
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Post by Bighouserulez on May 16, 2023 11:53:47 GMT -5
I can understand the topic quik but even if you had another kicker that gave you 80% of the production at 3.12 you had to have had another player that could have helped the team more.
I know sometimes are teams get a little heavy in talent and that is when it makes sense with luxury picks but early 3rd round for kickers is rough IMO.
My kicker last year had to have been one of the worst but- 26/41 11/19 40+ 4/9 50+
Hall- 32/33 10/10 40+ 0/0 50+
So here your guy is major levels above. My kicker is the worst in the league. Take out the 50+ since you evidently do not believe in 50 yard field goals lol. 22/32 still not great right?
Take away the 40+ 11/13 versus your guy 22/23
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Post by squirrel on May 16, 2023 13:25:52 GMT -5
Just reminiscing here on the idea we can make luxury picks. We’re more than a little bit thinner on the ground for talent on the Jets nowadays! Sad face.
I don’t think there’s an analytical case for a highly drafted kicker FWIW. Here or in the NFL. I don’t think the delta between league average and good kicker makes a lot of difference. Only an instinctive view, not data driven, and I’m willing to believe I’m wrong. The Browns do draft kickers in the real NFL and you can be sure Paul DePodesta has had someone diligence that analytically to make the decision.
I think punter is a different conversation. Punters are valuable I think, more so than kickers to my mind.
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quiksand
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Post by quiksand on May 16, 2023 13:56:08 GMT -5
I can understand the topic quik but even if you had another kicker that gave you 80% of the production at 3.12 you had to have had another player that could have helped the team more. I definitely see the point there, and that's why this is a topic, right? The question isn't whether a big bars K is better, it's whether he's enough better than the replacement level guy to be worth drafting up where there's a meaningful loss in opportunity cost. I know I come from a tougher place than most... I am so in love with my little gadget end-of-bencher guys with high chemistry and cohesion and whatnot that I think I tend to attach less value to the sort of guy you can reliably land in round three of a tough draft like this league generates. For me, that 22/41 safety who will someday become 43/43 is fine, but I already have a 32/32 safety that I can't live without.
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Post by Bighouserulez on May 16, 2023 14:38:33 GMT -5
I can understand the topic quik but even if you had another kicker that gave you 80% of the production at 3.12 you had to have had another player that could have helped the team more. I definitely see the point there, and that's why this is a topic, right? The question isn't whether a big bars K is better, it's whether he's enough better than the replacement level guy to be worth drafting up where there's a meaningful loss in opportunity cost. I know I come from a tougher place than most... I am so in love with my little gadget end-of-bencher guys with high chemistry and cohesion and whatnot that I think I tend to attach less value to the sort of guy you can reliably land in round three of a tough draft like this league generates. For me, that 22/41 safety who will someday become 43/43 is fine, but I already have a 32/32 safety that I can't live without. Yes that makes sense but in the top of the 3rd round your still getting starters not scrubs IMO. If you have an elite kicker and the luxury of a late 3rd i can see the value there. I could go through the top 12 teams in this league and they are probably doing something wrong if they grab a kicker and not a starter in the early 3rd round. I agree with you on the convo but how much does it add to grab the kicker at the top of the 3rd compared to grabbing a starter? What is worth more and then using a positional value is a kicker in the 3rd round equal to more wins?
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Post by squirrel on May 16, 2023 14:43:59 GMT -5
Part of this is about chem I suspect. If we draft for chem, and we do, by round 3 often the clear starter prospects are gone for us and we're into rinky-dink guys. Net net we think we are ok doing that but it is part of the arithmetic
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tzach
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Post by tzach on May 17, 2023 8:05:32 GMT -5
this is a very interesting topic -- agreed that the value of this guy comes in FGs from 52ish+ yds.
in my view, there are strategies in which kicking from 50+ yds is beneficial. in others it's not. it depends quite a lot on what you have on offense and defense. i wish the game provided points scored (and surrendered) per possession, which to me is the most important metric for estimating offensive and defensive efficiency.
based on fof game data, the 35 yd line is the average field position where it doesn't matter for the game outcome if you kick a FG or punt. this means a 52 yd FG attempt. for the NFL, it's 40 yds (57 yd FG). of course on a team by team basis (or even week by week), this number can go up or down quite a lot based on your kicker, weather (which is why the game offers to rex the max FG distance), opposing offense and defense.
if you have a great offense, you can get away with kicking less FGs and instead punting, since you have a good chance on scoring in the next possession anyway after a successful short punt. if you have a great defense, you have a higher chance that a missed FG will not turn into an opponent TD or FG after giving a good starting position.
i think the max value of a stud kicker comes when you have a great defense and average offense. chances are that you will be in a lot of close games, and you will maximize your chances if you can kick FGs from a bit further. i'd say that for this type of team, a 3rd is well worth it.
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Post by squirrel on May 17, 2023 8:40:56 GMT -5
this is a very interesting topic -- agreed that the value of this guy comes in FGs from 52ish+ yds. in my view, there are strategies in which kicking from 50+ yds is beneficial. in others it's not. it depends quite a lot on what you have on offense and defense. i wish the game provided points scored (and surrendered) per possession, which to me is the most important metric for estimating offensive and defensive efficiency. based on fof game data, the 35 yd line is the average field position where it doesn't matter for the game outcome if you kick a FG or punt. this means a 52 yd FG attempt. for the NFL, it's 40 yds (57 yd FG). of course on a team by team basis (or even week by week), this number can go up or down quite a lot based on your kicker, weather (which is why the game offers to rex the max FG distance), opposing offense and defense. if you have a great offense, you can get away with kicking less FGs and instead punting, since you have a good chance on scoring in the next possession anyway after a successful short punt. if you have a great defense, you have a higher chance that a missed FG will not turn into an opponent TD or FG after giving a good starting position. i think the max value of a stud kicker comes when you have a great defense and average offense. chances are that you will be in a lot of close games, and you will maximize your chances if you can kick FGs from a bit further. i'd say that for this type of team, a 3rd is well worth it. Very interesting way to think about it. That last part describes the NFL Ravens pretty well I would say
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quiksand
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Post by quiksand on May 18, 2023 13:31:05 GMT -5
I could go through the top 12 teams in this league and they are probably doing something wrong if they grab a kicker and not a starter in the early 3rd round. I agree with you on the convo but how much does it add to grab the kicker at the top of the 3rd compared to grabbing a starter? What is worth more and then using a positional value is a kicker in the 3rd round equal to more wins? Okay, let's have a look at the players taken after our kicker in this league, that draft: 3.13 WR now out of the league, 139 career receiving yards 3.14 Decent safety, 72 starts over 8 years, rated 39 now 3.15 another kicker who never played for anyone 3.16 WR now out of the league, 231 career receiving yards 3.17 QB with 4 starts and a 3/9 ratio 3.18 Solid LB with 29 starts and a total of 115 tackles, rated 46 now 3.19 WR now out of the league, 1034 career receiving yards 3.20 QB now out of the league, 2 crappy starts 3.21 very good edge rusher, 97 starts and 45 sacks 3.22 decent DT, 51 starts and 177 tackles ...not an overwhelming wave of sure starters, really. One, maybe two, who have contributed more in 7 seasons than our kicker has. (Not claiming this is a slam dunk analysis, but it doesn't embarrass me for taking the K there)
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Post by ManWithNoName on May 18, 2023 14:29:50 GMT -5
I certainly wouldn't mind a kicker that could make some 50+ kicks. We're leaving points on the field because my guy can't hit the broadside of a barn from 50 out.
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Red Zone
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Post by Red Zone on May 18, 2023 15:21:06 GMT -5
Quik this is a great topic for discussion, not only to compare different points of view, but also to see why those points of view all have value. I agree with both sides of this debate…in part. For me, this game is largely about QBs, WRs and DBs. Without those you will have difficulty facing teams that do have them. Sure, there are run heavy teams that succeed too, but for me it’s those 3 positions. The biggest challenge is the salary cap. QBs, WRs and DBs eat up a lot of cap space and I personally have no desire to spend large amounts on a kicker. Drafting one and taking advantage of his rookie deal is fine, but when he wants that big payday it will come from someone else’s team. I’ve said a couple times that I believe some positions have a higher floor, like kickers. How many kickers make less than 7 out of 10 FGs? How many kickers can make 8 out if 10? Am I really going to use up cap dollars on a guy who makes 9 out of 10? 2 extra FGs out of every 10 is 6 a season if he attempts 30. 18 points over 16 games is just over 1 point per game. Sure there is the chance it could be a game winner in a playoff game, but to me… I’m not spending my money there. I’ve drafted kickers in round 4 and I’ll bet somewhere I took one in round 3 sometime or other, but keeping them long term and paying 9 million per yr? No way… not on my team
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