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Post by Nick on Aug 27, 2023 7:51:49 GMT -5
I always felt an elite P was more valuable than an elite K. Poor Kickers can outperform great ones regularly. Very rare a poor Punter outperforms a great Punter.
I always felt the late 2nd was when an elite P was a possible target. More late 3rd for an elite K.
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Post by Sawblade300 on Aug 27, 2023 15:56:40 GMT -5
I always felt an elite P was more valuable than an elite K. Poor Kickers can outperform great ones regularly. Very rare a poor Punter outperforms a great Punter. I always felt the late 2nd was when an elite P was a possible target. More late 3rd for an elite K. Not sure I understand this as an elite K can put points on the board where a weaker one couldn't, requiring you to punt instead. I can understand the value of both but I would rather have somebody that I know will put points on the board.
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Post by bylanta on Aug 27, 2023 18:45:51 GMT -5
I always felt an elite P was more valuable than an elite K. Poor Kickers can outperform great ones regularly. Very rare a poor Punter outperforms a great Punter. I always felt the late 2nd was when an elite P was a possible target. More late 3rd for an elite K. If the offense is humming, you punt ~4 times a game. Not sure what that makes them worth to a good offensive team to use them one play a quarter on average
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Post by Nick on Aug 28, 2023 2:00:01 GMT -5
I always felt an elite P was more valuable than an elite K. Poor Kickers can outperform great ones regularly. Very rare a poor Punter outperforms a great Punter. I always felt the late 2nd was when an elite P was a possible target. More late 3rd for an elite K. Not sure I understand this as an elite K can put points on the board where a weaker one couldn't, requiring you to punt instead. I can understand the value of both but I would rather have somebody that I know will put points on the board. Yeah in theory, but when you look at the stats the difference between a weak K and a good one is very little over the long term. Often zero in 1 season.
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Post by Nick on Aug 28, 2023 2:14:46 GMT -5
I always felt an elite P was more valuable than an elite K. Poor Kickers can outperform great ones regularly. Very rare a poor Punter outperforms a great Punter. I always felt the late 2nd was when an elite P was a possible target. More late 3rd for an elite K. If the offense is humming, you punt ~4 times a game. Not sure what that makes them worth to a good offensive team to use them one play a quarter on average If you look at long term stats the difference between elite and poor is surprising. Without looking guessing 6 yards per punt. Take 4 punts per game, and assume you are a good team. 6x4 = 24. 24x16= 384 yards. That's a whole game full of yards gained form a late 2nd P compared to if you fished in UDFA. How many players bring you 384 yards per season? Late 2nd you might be drafting a 50 overall non skill guy on average. But you can get a 40 one for free in UDFA. Those 10 points are not even close to 384 yards IMO. 384 yards is a big ask of any non skill guy. I believe elite non skill guys could bring that, but they would be 1st types in the main. Now imagine a team which punts 6 or 7 times a game. I think the P is the most under valued position amongst the majority in FOF. Particularly if you don't have a strong Offense.
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Post by Bighouserulez on Aug 28, 2023 13:33:03 GMT -5
If the offense is humming, you punt ~4 times a game. Not sure what that makes them worth to a good offensive team to use them one play a quarter on average If you look at long term stats the difference between elite and poor is surprising. Without looking guessing 6 yards per punt. Take 4 punts per game, and assume you are a good team. 6x4 = 24. 24x16= 384 yards. That's a whole game full of yards gained form a late 2nd P compared to if you fished in UDFA. How many players bring you 384 yards per season? Late 2nd you might be drafting a 50 overall non skill guy on average. But you can get a 40 one for free in UDFA. Those 10 points are not even close to 384 yards IMO. 384 yards is a big ask of any non skill guy. I believe elite non skill guys could bring that, but they would be 1st types in the main. Now imagine a team which punts 6 or 7 times a game. I think the P is the most under valued position amongst the majority in FOF. Particularly if you don't have a strong Offense. I think this is a little apples and oranges. The problem with punters is the average mean is so close to the top tier drafting one in the 2nd round does not ever come out as value. If you draft a punter and he is on par with 10-15 punters year in and year out it is not value. IN each league i looked quickly in my 3 leagues and 14 of the top punters of the top 30 were undrafted.....4 of them were 3rd round or higher. That does not seem like much value. In real life football i think it makes a huge difference but this league's worst punter had 40.8 per punt the best one on average was 48.5 and his net yards sucks and he was a 3rd rounder. I cannot see it at all. I think a mediocre or decent is just about on par as the league's elite or "high end drafted kicker/punters".
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Post by thefatcat on Aug 28, 2023 13:51:45 GMT -5
If the offense is humming, you punt ~4 times a game. Not sure what that makes them worth to a good offensive team to use them one play a quarter on average If you look at long term stats the difference between elite and poor is surprising. Without looking guessing 6 yards per punt. Take 4 punts per game, and assume you are a good team. 6x4 = 24. 24x16= 384 yards. That's a whole game full of yards gained form a late 2nd P compared to if you fished in UDFA. How many players bring you 384 yards per season? Late 2nd you might be drafting a 50 overall non skill guy on average. But you can get a 40 one for free in UDFA. Those 10 points are not even close to 384 yards IMO. 384 yards is a big ask of any non skill guy. I believe elite non skill guys could bring that, but they would be 1st types in the main. Now imagine a team which punts 6 or 7 times a game. I think the P is the most under valued position amongst the majority in FOF. Particularly if you don't have a strong Offense. Excellent contribution Nick, this kind of stuff helps you move up the waiting list and get a team!
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Post by julioriddols on Aug 30, 2023 2:14:05 GMT -5
Kickers are only truly valuable to me if they can kick off deep with good hang time. Otherwise they are just placeholders until I get a guy who can kick off deep, with good hang time. I won't often draft or pay for one of these, unless they come relatively cheap.
Punters.. All that matters to me is the distance bar. I've recently been playing around with guys who are more placement punters, they tend to suck. I sometimes feel like the directional punting bar is useless, as in it is not used, so it has no use. I can't otherwise explain why the good directional punters never seem to be good at directional punts. I could see them being incredibly valuable if they produced a discernible improvement on touchback ratio or how many balls were placed not just inside the 20, but inside the 10 and 5. Instead they seem more likely to shank a 28 yarder and give the other team the ball at their 22 on a punt from the 50.
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Post by Bighouserulez on Aug 30, 2023 8:56:12 GMT -5
Kickers are only truly valuable to me if they can kick off deep with good hang time. Otherwise they are just placeholders until I get a guy who can kick off deep, with good hang time. I won't often draft or pay for one of these, unless they come relatively cheap. Punters.. All that matters to me is the distance bar. I've recently been playing around with guys who are more placement punters, they tend to suck. I sometimes feel like the directional punting bar is useless, as in it is not used, so it has no use. I can't otherwise explain why the good directional punters never seem to be good at directional punts. I could see them being incredibly valuable if they produced a discernible improvement on touchback ratio or how many balls were placed not just inside the 20, but inside the 10 and 5. Instead they seem more likely to shank a 28 yarder and give the other team the ball at their 22 on a punt from the 50. I agree with this one hundred percent!
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quiksand
Franchise Owner
Bench Warmer
Jets Co-GM
Posts: 401
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Post by quiksand on Apr 29, 2024 8:36:21 GMT -5
Ok, so the guy who started this thread is closing out his career. Still highly rated, but no longer a titan of red bars.
Career stuff we can see on his player page: FG overall 400/450 88.9% playoffs 87.8% FG 40+ 122/165 73.9% playoffs 77.8% FG 50+ 20/41 48.8% playoffs 83.3% PAT 534/564 94.7% playoffs 97.9%
We had him on a fairly cheap 4y rookie deal, and then retained him through extensions and FA re-signings, basically at market price (meaning he made around $7m/yr most of that stretch)
He was never as much of a superstar in kickoffs, and has faded there, but is still over 50 in both of those bars. There may be a measurement to assess this, I don't have it at hand. So... he was probably some +EV there, but not a ton.
Interesting that his numbers seem better in the postseason... doesn't stretch the imagination that the game might have a coded element there as a stress test of some sort.
Anyway...not overwhelming results, nor an open and shUt case in favor for the draft pick and contracts being worth it, but our guy and his three rings might have a near-to-Justin Tucker sort of HOF case, I'd guess.
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Post by bylanta on Apr 29, 2024 8:57:57 GMT -5
Thanks for coming full circle on this. It made for some fun conversation and was interesting to see the different viewpoints. I also noticed that after creating this thread, it appears someone around the JETS campfire decided to put that golden leg to use on longer distance FGs than he had been.
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Post by squirrel on Apr 30, 2024 14:45:54 GMT -5
Another point to note...courtesy of the affinity approach we struggle some years to find guys to spend all the cap on. Others' mileage may vary on that one. Hence the mega-K might be a bit easier for us to carry
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Post by WilleB on May 1, 2024 2:26:36 GMT -5
I'm still here.
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Post by Bighouserulez on May 1, 2024 8:12:44 GMT -5
I feel the same. I have those one off elite kickers sure that makes sense but you hit on an elite 1/900 prospects. If you had hit on a WR or QB the value pick would have been higher.
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Post by WilleB on May 1, 2024 12:09:54 GMT -5
I feel the same. I have those one off elite kickers sure that makes sense but you hit on an elite 1/900 prospects. If you had hit on a WR or QB the value pick would have been higher. 1/900? Nah
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