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Post by murph on Apr 9, 2022 13:16:48 GMT -5
Top 5 teams in scoring defense after week 9:
Seattle Seahawks, 10.9 PPG allowed. 7-0-1
New England Patriots, 14.5 PPG allowed. 5-3
New York Jets, 16.6 PPG allowed. 6-2
New Orleans Saints, 16.8 PPG allowed. 5-3
Cincinnati Bengals, 18.0 PPG allowed. 3-4-1
Top 5 teams in scoring offense after week 9:
Atlanta Falcons, 28.9 PPG. 6-2
Minnesota Vikings, 27.4 PPG. 3-5
Chicago Bears, 27.4 PPG. 4-4
Dallas Cowboys, 27.3 PPG. 5-4
Arizona Cardinals, 26.8 PPG. 5-3
No team is in the top 5 in both categories. So... which group would you rather be in, if you had to choose? Defense or offense? Most would choose offense before they saw this. How many will change their minds after seeing this?
Top 5 defenses combined for a 26-12-2 record. .675 winning percentage.
Top 5 offenses combined for a 23-18 record. .561 winning percentage.
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Post by ManWithNoName on Apr 9, 2022 14:18:07 GMT -5
Offense is more consistent year to year so I'd rather have that. Offense is also more fun. My defense was the 4th best scoring defense in the league last year and now with almost the exact same players we've dropped to lower half of the league. It's just hard to have much consistency there.
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Post by julioriddols on Apr 9, 2022 14:41:28 GMT -5
I always choose defense if I can pick a side of the ball to be consistently good. It's exceptionally easy to put together an average offense, and you can win with that and a stingy defense, especially one that forces mistakes.
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Post by Nick on Apr 9, 2022 16:13:31 GMT -5
Stats don't really tell the whole story. When you are controlling games in the 2nd half your Offensive numbers won't look so hot. If anyone looked at our 1st half running game versus our 2nd half running game, the difference would be huge. 1 ypc+ I would bet.
On the opposite end if your are in tight games or even losing, you can often put up flashy Offensive numbers.
I wouldn't be surprised if Special Teams were just as good a predictor at winning records as Defense. Maybe better.
All that said, I think Offense is most important of the 3. But trying to pick out who has the best Offense or Defense by skim reading stats is tricky. No doubt our PPG is massively helped by our brand of Offense.
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Post by Joel on Apr 9, 2022 16:31:44 GMT -5
Stats don't really tell the whole story. When you are controlling games in the 2nd half your Offensive numbers won't look so hot. If anyone looked at our 1st half running game versus our 2nd half running game, the difference would be huge. 1 ypc+ I would bet. On the opposite end if your are in tight games or even losing, you can often put up flashy Offensive numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if Special Teams were just as good a predictor at winning records as Defense. Maybe better. All that said, I think Offense is most important of the 3. But trying to pick out who has the best Offense or Defense by skim reading stats is tricky. No doubt our PPG is massively helped by our brand of Offense. Agreed. I think the telling numbers are your average per run/per pass on offence and on defence. Points and yards can be manipulated by game scenarios, as you’ve said |
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Post by murph on Apr 10, 2022 2:08:40 GMT -5
Offense is more consistent year to year so I'd rather have that. Offense is also more fun. My defense was the 4th best scoring defense in the league last year and now with almost the exact same players we've dropped to lower half of the league. It's just hard to have much consistency there. I disagree with you on this. I believe you can be consistent. But I also believe you have to put a decent amount of effort into scouting and gameplanning. Also, your offense plays a part in the success of your defense, but I'm not going into that. I've done enough tests in that area to be certain of what I'm saying. Also, I think (and please correct me if I'm wrong as I'm getting ready to go to work and don't have game logs in front of me to verify) that you blitz a decent amount of the time... blitzing makes your defense less consistent. It's a gamble. If you are blitzing a lot, you may want to reconsider if you want more consistency. PS - Didn't you make a Bowl appearance last season, being 4th best in the league in scoring defense? Isn't that preferable to being a perennial great offense and not making the playoffs? |
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Post by Nick on Apr 10, 2022 2:33:16 GMT -5
Offense is more consistent year to year so I'd rather have that. Offense is also more fun. My defense was the 4th best scoring defense in the league last year and now with almost the exact same players we've dropped to lower half of the league. It's just hard to have much consistency there. PS - Didn't you make a Bowl appearance last season, being 4th best in the league in scoring defense? Isn't that preferable to being a perennial great offense and not making the playoffs? Probably a side point, but I would guess the no.1 factor in scoring defense is dice rolls. |
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Post by Joel on Apr 10, 2022 2:48:54 GMT -5
PS - Didn't you make a Bowl appearance last season, being 4th best in the league in scoring defense? Isn't that preferable to being a perennial great offense and not making the playoffs? Probably a side point, but I would guess the no.1 factor in scoring defense is dice rolls. And who you have played |
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Post by ManWithNoName on Apr 10, 2022 10:32:29 GMT -5
Offense is more consistent year to year so I'd rather have that. Offense is also more fun. My defense was the 4th best scoring defense in the league last year and now with almost the exact same players we've dropped to lower half of the league. It's just hard to have much consistency there. I disagree with you on this. I believe you can be consistent. But I also believe you have to put a decent amount of effort into scouting and gameplanning. Also, your offense plays a part in the success of your defense, but I'm not going into that. I've done enough tests in that area to be certain of what I'm saying. Also, I think (and please correct me if I'm wrong as I'm getting ready to go to work and don't have game logs in front of me to verify) that you blitz a decent amount of the time... blitzing makes your defense less consistent. It's a gamble. If you are blitzing a lot, you may want to reconsider if you want more consistency. PS - Didn't you make a Bowl appearance last season, being 4th best in the league in scoring defense? Isn't that preferable to being a perennial great offense and not making the playoffs? I have been blitzing fairly often. Probably a mistake this year as I don’t really have the personnel for it anymore. |
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Post by murph on Apr 10, 2022 11:28:27 GMT -5
PS - Didn't you make a Bowl appearance last season, being 4th best in the league in scoring defense? Isn't that preferable to being a perennial great offense and not making the playoffs? Probably a side point, but I would guess the no.1 factor in scoring defense is dice rolls. But not for offense? Can you please expand on this? I don't really understand how this works. |
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Post by Nick on Apr 10, 2022 12:37:32 GMT -5
Probably a side point, but I would guess the no.1 factor in scoring defense is dice rolls. But not for offense? Can you please expand on this? I don't really understand how this works. Dice rolls play a part in scoring Offense, but gameplans and talent also have strong parts to play. Over the long term, they will become bigger factors as dice will even out. Over the short term anything can happen. For example the best Offense may score first 60% of the time. Over a whole season they may score the most 80% of the time. Over 100 seasons it may be 99.9%. Like tossing a coin. In 10 throws you may get heads 8 times. Over 100,000 throw it will even out. You won't get 80,000 heads. More like 48-52k. With scoring Defense interceptions and fumble returns are what does the job. Those returns come down to pure luck mainly. Whether you get a 1 yard return or 90 are beyond our control. Talent or gameplans, cohesion or chemistry, won't play in to the length of the a return. Talent and gameplans may get you more interceptions. Although I don't think the variance will be a whole lot. The key is in the returns after turnovers, and that's pretty much all dice. |
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Post by murph on Apr 10, 2022 15:39:42 GMT -5
OK, when I say scoring defense I mean points allowed, not points scored by defense. Maybe that is where the disconnect is.
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Post by Strubbel94 on Apr 10, 2022 15:55:14 GMT -5
Okay here my 2cts
A good defense isn't worse or better than a good offense in terms of wins and if you know what you're doing in terms of gameplannign both can be concistent. Yeah maybe the defense is a bit more random, but I also believe that you can build a consitantly good defense.
However there is one major diference.
The cap and the amount of star players you need to sustain a good offense/defense. On defense to be a concistantly top unit you would need multiple good defenders on every level (e.g. stud pass rusher, lock down corner, elite run stopper and two great LB's), but these guys cost a lot of cap space. While you can be fairly concistant and great on offense with a stud QB and one stud WR while the rest of the offense is fairly average.
So I would say that it is easier to maintain a concistantly great offense cap wise, as long as you at least get your QB.
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Post by Nick on Apr 11, 2022 1:51:34 GMT -5
OK, when I say scoring defense I mean points allowed, not points scored by defense. Maybe that is where the disconnect is. Oh okay. In that aspect consider a team like ours holds the ball longer, thus allows less drives. Less opportunities to score. Factor in ST, because of field position. Longer fields are harder to score on. Also quality of Offenses faced is a sizeable variable. |
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Post by Nick on Apr 11, 2022 2:24:25 GMT -5
Offensive turnovers are another factor. How often is the opposing Offense getting a short field.
All this stuff can give a false reading with the ppg. Our defense isn't as good as the ppg would have you believe, but our Offense is better than it might appear IMO.
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