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Post by squirrel on Sept 27, 2018 17:15:18 GMT -5
Joel, it was a while ago but what I think I did was
1. Calc'd a hidden rating like this for all the QBs across the league
2. Then looked at the contribution made to overall rating for QBs by a few other bars...distributed across the league
3. So I had a data set, ranked from top to bottom, of the contribution made by say sense rush, then say deep passes, then another one, then another one. From best player to worst player for that bar, across a league.
4. I put those into line graphs. They all looked fairly similar, and they were not straight lines...they looked like logarithmic distributions to me.
5. I came up with a best fit based on all of these and decided that was a 'typical distribution'
6. I went back and multiplied the typical distibution through my hidden ratings...if you then assume that hidden fumbles makes zero difference then I think you end up with avoid INT on a 0-100 scale, sort of
All fine optically and perhaps it can mean something, but I couldn't see what it added
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Post by squirrel on Sept 27, 2018 17:16:10 GMT -5
Not sure I agree with this, FWIW. So take 3rd down, for example. Contributes 14% to the overall rating. So a guy with a 50 bar gets 50 * 14.0% = 7.0 more overall rating because of that bar. That guy has a 60/60 rating. Right, next guy comes along, he has a 30/30 overall rating. He has a 50 bar for 3rd down also. And the contribution to overall rating from that bar...the same. 7.0 more added to the overall. My working assumption would be the same logic extends to avoid INT. The rating is hidden but the logic is the same. The 80/80 and the 20/20 get the same impact from the bar. That doesn't hold up for me. Jeremy's Stafford couldn't possibly have a +7 as his rating doesn't allow for that high a positive. I am pretty sure these figures you are coming up are relative to the players overall. OK, that's interesting. Appreciate the steer
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Post by squirrel on Sept 27, 2018 17:27:01 GMT -5
I just had to go in and fix it again...isn't very stable as it's so easy to change
I ran stafford through per screenshot above and get +3.3
My contention (not strongly held) is it doesn't mean more for this guy to be +3.3 than for a 40/40 to be +3.3. Not sure what that means about the number of picks thrown though.
Obviously rather have the higher rated guy, all else constant
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Post by Bighouserulez on Sept 27, 2018 17:33:50 GMT -5
Just to be funny i always thought Stafford was inept in the head department at times but 6....
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Post by Bighouserulez on Sept 27, 2018 17:34:59 GMT -5
I just had to go in and fix it again...isn't very stable as it's so easy to change I ran stafford through per screenshot above and get +3.3 My contention (not strongly held) is it doesn't mean more for this guy to be +3.3 than for a 40/40 to be +3.3. Not sure what that means about the number of picks thrown though. Obviously rather have the higher rated guy, all else constant That seems about right as staring at him just guessing i would think his bar is a 50 maybe 60 rated avoid int.
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Post by jeremy on Sept 27, 2018 17:47:04 GMT -5
I just wish he was about 4-5 inches taller. On this subject... any way to really understand more fully how height factors in to performance? Are there specific aspects of performance it would impact? If I were to guess based on Garrison I would think completion % takes a hit. More likely to throw picks?
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Post by Bighouserulez on Sept 27, 2018 17:52:45 GMT -5
I had slowly been running a study but the only height issues are under 5'10. Out of about 100 top tier Qbs there has only been two shorter then that to be in the top 10-12 in QB rating.
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Post by ezlee2 on Sept 27, 2018 17:54:25 GMT -5
As we know Combines are a part of the equation that is what makes the game great. I will never forget having the argument in the V (It was Civil) about a certain QB. MY spreadsheet showed we was going to be like 70 avoid AI and you really felt the opposite. I wish that forum was up for my sheets and the convo ug. Man, I think about this at least once a week. So much stuff that was pure gold that while is somewhat dated is very much relevant. I talk about it all the time, but Hibby's static bar thread was the best damn explanation I've ever seen. It was static bars for dummies and an excellent visual for anyone new to the game.
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Post by ezlee2 on Sept 27, 2018 17:55:56 GMT -5
I sent Bear an email a month back and never heard back from him. I' not on Facebook anymore, but he and I had plenty of chats as recent as couple years back. Does anyone keep in contact with him? It would be amazing to get him to fire up that server again and recover that stuff.
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Post by jeremy on Sept 27, 2018 17:59:22 GMT -5
I had slowly been running a study but the only height issues are under 5'10. Out of about 100 top tier Qbs there has only been two shorter then that to be in the top 10-12 in QB rating. So are there common problems apparent in the shorties' performances? lower completion %? something else?
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Post by jeremy on Sept 27, 2018 18:01:18 GMT -5
I sent Bear an email a month back and never heard back from him. I' not on Facebook anymore, but he and I had plenty of chats as recent as couple years back. Does anyone keep in contact with him? It would be amazing to get him to fire up that server again and recover that stuff. I would wonder about his health. It was really bad... what.... 6-7 years ago when the vNFL was in its prime.
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Post by Bighouserulez on Sept 27, 2018 18:04:07 GMT -5
I had slowly been running a study but the only height issues are under 5'10. Out of about 100 top tier Qbs there has only been two shorter then that to be in the top 10-12 in QB rating. So are there common problems apparent in the shorties' performances? lower completion %? something else? I was really JUST going off of QB rating. I figure in FOF a successful QB is going to be in the top 3rd of the league.
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Post by Joel on Sept 27, 2018 18:04:43 GMT -5
I had slowly been running a study but the only height issues are under 5'10. Out of about 100 top tier Qbs there has only been two shorter then that to be in the top 10-12 in QB rating. So are there common problems apparent in the shorties' performances? lower completion %? something else? My honest opinion, after all the SP testing is that there shouldn’t be an issue.. here’s why there are so few successful short guys: how many players have even been 60+ rated under 6’0ft, maybe 3/4 in this league out of all the Qb’s. The sample size is far too small, when it is so rare to even get a great QB, let alone them being short
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Post by Bighouserulez on Sept 27, 2018 18:08:01 GMT -5
I sent Bear an email a month back and never heard back from him. I' not on Facebook anymore, but he and I had plenty of chats as recent as couple years back. Does anyone keep in contact with him? It would be amazing to get him to fire up that server again and recover that stuff. He reached out to me like 3 years ago when i jumped out of FOF. I chatted with him just a few but nothing in depth. I JUST looked him up on facebook and still friends with him but it looks like he has not been on since February from him last year.
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Post by ManWithNoName on Sept 27, 2018 18:11:43 GMT -5
I know there’s not a ton of love for Frankie here considering he’s part of the reason this place was created, but he seemed pretty close to Bear in the vNFL2. Maybe he knows what’s up with him.
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