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Post by mellman on Apr 27, 2024 10:22:28 GMT -5
2061 Conference Teams of The Year SPONSORED BY M&M Inc [ AFC Team Of The Year  | NFC Team Of The Year  |
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Post by thefatcat on Apr 27, 2024 10:26:20 GMT -5
I did not expect anyone on here, let alone two, very happy with that  |
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Post by Sawblade300 on Apr 27, 2024 19:16:55 GMT -5
At least we got one player on the list after this crap season.
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Post by jeremy on Apr 27, 2024 20:46:51 GMT -5
What are the metrics here? I am not lobbying for Conway, but there are many other NFC QBs that had better years than Brennan.
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Post by Joel on Apr 28, 2024 1:53:35 GMT -5
What are the metrics here? I am not lobbying for Conway, but there are many other NFC QBs that had better years than Brennan. Seems like maybe an honest mistake? I’d have had Gamboa as the guy. Has the rating, and usage (yards) |
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Post by thefatcat on Apr 28, 2024 2:24:20 GMT -5
Its basically fantasy
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Post by mellman on Apr 28, 2024 3:58:46 GMT -5
What are the metrics here? I am not lobbying for Conway, but there are many other NFC QBs that had better years than Brennan. A few seasons back Simon was calculating it manually using a fantasy scoring points scheme (I've never played fantasy, so can't speak to it's true reflection of talent/production etc) and I just automated all of that. Below is the scoring dictionary:  For the ones that appear as a fraction, it's basically a "point per/number of category", so it's 1pt per 25yds passing and similar for yards rushed and received. It's funny that this has come up because when I was doing this yesterday I had thought to myself about uploading the 4 files for the final standings of each category OTOY, DTOY, OROY and DROY to my GDrive so people could download them and take a look for their players if they wanted - perhaps this will prompt me to do that going forwards. Here they are - drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Dk36c_-zD6AeuVZxFKtU8MEgNUYMJX0S?usp=sharingHere's a little peak at the top 10 QB's as things stood:  If anyone has suggestions on how to amend the scoring/alter things then I'd always love to hear it, same thing with trying to find a way to incorporate OL too. |
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Post by thefatcat on Apr 28, 2024 4:23:52 GMT -5
When I did team of the decade, with a bit of help from Nick I put together a pretty good way of deciding who is the best GM. So for instance in that calculation there is minus score for each year you win 5 or less games. Why you may ask, well we both thought that a team that constantly is say 9-7 or 10-6 etc is better than a team that goes 12-2 one year and 2-12 the next, becasue the team that is constantly putting up those 9,10,11 wins does it will a lowish draft pick every year so its hard to get those stud QBs or WRs etc.
From doing these kind of things for a while, i would suggest that someone like Sebastian Adams of the Browns (sorry Zach) has not done as well as say Nicholas Sherman of the Giants. Why you may ask, well the Browns throw every down almost, so his total yardage is always going to be way higher than the vast majority of QBs, does that make him a better QB? I am no guru on this kind of thing but if you are going to change it maybe take things like that in to consideration.
I started ROY for a bit of fun without much thought behind it, so i think yeah it could do with some big changes. If you do change it a good way to test the formula is to run the formula over the last 4 or 5 seasons stats and see if it looks rights, if not tinker with it a bit.
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Post by bylanta on Apr 28, 2024 4:59:32 GMT -5
When I did team of the decade, with a bit of help from Nick I put together a pretty good way of deciding who is the best GM. So for instance in that calculation there is minus score for each year you win 5 or less games. Why you may ask, well we both thought that a team that constantly is say 9-7 or 10-6 etc is better than a team that goes 12-2 one year and 2-12 the next, becasue the team that is constantly putting up those 9,10,11 wins does it will a lowish draft pick every year so its hard to get those stud QBs or WRs etc. From doing these kind of things for a while, i would suggest that someone like Sebastian Adams of the Browns (sorry Zach) has not done as well as say Nicholas Sherman of the Giants. Why you may ask, well for one Shermans is a rookie and his bars are not maxed out, number two would be and this is a big one for me, is that the Browns throw every down almost, so his total yardage is always going to be way higher than the vast majority of QBs, does that make hima better QB? I am no guru on this kind of thing but if you are going to change it maybe take things like that in to consideration. I started ROY for a bit of fun without much thought behind it, so i think yeah it could do with some big changes. If you do change it a good way to test the formula is to run the formula over the last 4 or 5 seasons stats and see if it looks rights, if not tinker with it a bit. I understand the point you are trying to make, but in actuality here Sherman threw 681 passes, third most of any qb. So the Giants were throwing a ton. Adams had 567 attempts. And neither one of them has fully developed bars. It's going to be impossible to find an equation that 32 of us agree represents who is best. Some people value efficiency, some people value counting stats, etc. No harm in tweaking and testing, but there will always be people who think it should be done differently. For instance I think INTs are a much bigger deal than TDs(and I'm certain you won't find 31 ppl here that agree w me on that) Sherman lead the league in INTs w 28. I can see that cost him 56 pts in this calculation, and he still came out ranked third. Fantasy pts is a nice easy way to calculate things, but if we wanted to get into the weeds about what contributes to winning, life gets complicated quickly and finding an answer might be impossible to get much agreement on. |
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Post by thefatcat on Apr 28, 2024 5:02:59 GMT -5
When I did team of the decade, with a bit of help from Nick I put together a pretty good way of deciding who is the best GM. So for instance in that calculation there is minus score for each year you win 5 or less games. Why you may ask, well we both thought that a team that constantly is say 9-7 or 10-6 etc is better than a team that goes 12-2 one year and 2-12 the next, becasue the team that is constantly putting up those 9,10,11 wins does it will a lowish draft pick every year so its hard to get those stud QBs or WRs etc. From doing these kind of things for a while, i would suggest that someone like Sebastian Adams of the Browns (sorry Zach) has not done as well as say Nicholas Sherman of the Giants. Why you may ask, well for one Shermans is a rookie and his bars are not maxed out, number two would be and this is a big one for me, is that the Browns throw every down almost, so his total yardage is always going to be way higher than the vast majority of QBs, does that make hima better QB? I am no guru on this kind of thing but if you are going to change it maybe take things like that in to consideration. I started ROY for a bit of fun without much thought behind it, so i think yeah it could do with some big changes. If you do change it a good way to test the formula is to run the formula over the last 4 or 5 seasons stats and see if it looks rights, if not tinker with it a bit. It's going to be impossible to find an equation that 32 of us agree represents who is best. Some people value efficiency, some people value counting stats, etc. No harm in tweaking and testing, but there will always be people who think it should be done differently. I think that's why one or two take on the responsibiity of doing this each week, its a big ask to do this each week as the league moves so fast. If those people take on the responibility they should have the final say on format and keep it secret, because like you say everyone will have a view and some will moan about it not fitting what they want. |
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Post by Joel on Apr 28, 2024 5:16:11 GMT -5
All of it’s tough, and not perfect. Just how life is. I’m fine with however Mell wants to do his rankings, as it’s great he puts that effort in for the league. However, being the contrary arse I am. I have always struggled with pythag and rankings over a year based on ‘pure’ stats. This is because things are dynamic. For example, pythag is based on points difference, but everyone knows that in a blow out game, you will always lose by more than what is reasonable. And it’s a one off, but it can affect that pythag significantly. Vice versa. For me it’s the same as QBR. Sometimes it’s over/under inflated. Another example, your QB can be solid and carry you for 13 games, but has 3 shockers. But his importance at 85 qbr is still more than a QB in a system (who gets 100 QBR) where they aren’t asked to carry. All interpretations and therefore we could argue the right metric for this stuff all day, I say let Mell use whatever he wants to |
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Post by mellman on Apr 28, 2024 5:22:13 GMT -5
All fair points. I'm no statistical savant, just a guy with a little bit of time who likes to try and save people (himself included) clicks. I actually don't even know how to code really, only started messing around with it because of FOF. If there are people who want to collaborate and try to workshop a better model/method for these sorts of things from a statistical (and coding too, if that's your thing) point of view I'm more than open to that, anything for the betterment of the league and it's immersion really.
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Post by mellman on Apr 28, 2024 5:34:52 GMT -5
Actually, thinking about it...for those in IHOF you will know this but Ben has a load of custom metrics and awards etc at the end of every game/season and you see the same names cropping up there year after year, so all systems have their darlings.
HOWEVER, you do get acknowledgements for players who might not qualify for those awards because Clay aka Steelstone aka 'the best voice in FOF' does a periodic video round up with other GM's from the league, usually on a Sunday night for a few hours - they will go through teams and highlight their players and talk about their seasons etc and this does a great job of increasing the breadth of acknowledgement for all different types of systems/GM's and their players. So where a system with it's limited scope may falter, a timely chorus of public opinion will surely prosper. Of course making those videos is all time dependent, I know we've done them in the past in various incarnations but maybe where possible having an end of season/pre playoff video is a good time to give everyone a bit of air time.
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Post by jeremy on Apr 28, 2024 8:26:29 GMT -5
I am not a fantasy football player, or a big stats guy. What confuses me about this particular situation is that seemingly any metric you use Gamboa had a better year than Brennan. QBR, more TDs, less INTs, higher completion %, more 300 yard pass games. So what is it that puts Brennan over the top?
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Post by mellman on Apr 28, 2024 10:23:41 GMT -5
I am not a fantasy football player, or a big stats guy. What confuses me about this particular situation is that seemingly any metric you use Gamboa had a better year than Brennan. QBR, more TDs, less INTs, higher completion %, more 300 yard pass games. So what is it that puts Brennan over the top? Brennan is a dual threat, he has the most rushing yards by a QB and the most rushing TD's by a QB :   |
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