2059 Season Pythag Breakdown!
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Dec 9, 2023 17:07:47 GMT -5
ezlee2, WilleB, and 7 more like this
Post by mellman on Dec 9, 2023 17:07:47 GMT -5
That's right folks! Saturday night is Spreadsheet night in the Mellman household, so this completes the holy trinity of end of season analytics shared today.
With the regular season now behind us it's time to see what Pythagoras made of the whole thing, was lady luck shining down on you? or were you hard done by?! - allow the conditional formatting of Excel to make it easy to see at a glance!
Commiserations to those who missed the post season and good luck to all those that remain.
At a glance analytics:
1) The 'unluckiest' division was the NFC West with an average win differential of -0.725, only the division winners in Seattle posted a positive win diff on the season.
2) The 'luckiest' division was a tie between the AFC North and NFC North with an average win differential of +0.7, only the 4th placed team in both divisions finished with a negative win differential according to Pythag (you should have been 6-10 Wes!).
3) Strongest division looks to have been the AFC West with 3 teams expected to have put up double digit win season in the Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos. *This note was written last year but is basically the same this year, that division is a dog fight*
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Pythagorean information can be found here - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation#Use_in_the_National_Football_League
Team hex codes used can be found here along with all other digital formats - teamcolorcodes.com/
At a glance analysis provided by someone who can be described as 'amateur' at best and did this in amongst 100 other things he should have been doing, all opinions can and should be considered frivolous.
With the regular season now behind us it's time to see what Pythagoras made of the whole thing, was lady luck shining down on you? or were you hard done by?! - allow the conditional formatting of Excel to make it easy to see at a glance!
Commiserations to those who missed the post season and good luck to all those that remain.
At a glance analytics:
1) The 'unluckiest' division was the NFC West with an average win differential of -0.725, only the division winners in Seattle posted a positive win diff on the season.
2) The 'luckiest' division was a tie between the AFC North and NFC North with an average win differential of +0.7, only the 4th placed team in both divisions finished with a negative win differential according to Pythag (you should have been 6-10 Wes!).
3) Strongest division looks to have been the AFC West with 3 teams expected to have put up double digit win season in the Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos. *This note was written last year but is basically the same this year, that division is a dog fight*
[/div]Pythagorean information can be found here - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation#Use_in_the_National_Football_League
Team hex codes used can be found here along with all other digital formats - teamcolorcodes.com/
At a glance analysis provided by someone who can be described as 'amateur' at best and did this in amongst 100 other things he should have been doing, all opinions can and should be considered frivolous.
- Small footnote for those interested, this years version (and all subsequent versions) now use a dynamic exponent to account for a different scoring environment than the original standard NFL exponent. More can be found here - salcorpenterprise.com/calculating-pythagorean-wins-for-nfl-teams-using-python/
- It also now accounts for tie's by allocating .5 to both and win/loss in that case.
