tzach
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Browns GM
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Post by tzach on Aug 3, 2022 10:00:02 GMT -5
there's no edge to be gained here.
it has all the looks of being cosmetic -- we know that the nickel personnel is on the field, but the log reports as regular personnel and misprints the positions. if it is a bug, the 3rd down engine is robust enough to not allow any noticeable gain from that.
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tzach
Franchise Owner
Bench Warmer
Browns GM
Posts: 426
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Post by tzach on Aug 3, 2022 10:48:37 GMT -5
here's one way of going through the data for those of you who want to look at that. these are plays from 10 seasons of IHOF in 3rd and long situations with 1 blitzer. it's further separated into offensive situation, defensive personnel (where it says regular it means that actually 3 CBs are on the field, i.e. nickel), and complete or incomplete pass.
just from a quick look at mean yards per play (as bad of a metric as that is) you can see that there's no noticeable difference. one can do more detailed statistical tests to show that indeed there is no evidence that they come from separate distributions as one would expect if the logs were right and the LCB was playing WLB. but that would get too technical to show here. in addition, there's some gms in ihof that have been using 1 or 2 wr personnel on 3rd and long for some time, and there's no evidence that they have better 3rd down efficiency because of that.
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dt86
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Titans GM
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Post by dt86 on Aug 3, 2022 10:50:26 GMT -5
I feel like I hijacked my own thread.
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