bobby11
Special Teamer
Former Panthers GM (2015)
Posts: 64 
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Post by bobby11 on Dec 11, 2015 13:57:23 GMT -5
There were many formidable offers made, but I've settled on the one I like the most, and no one else was willing to top the offer:
Cam Newton (57/75) is headed to St. Louis, which paired with that crazy defense, will be an extremely competitive team.
In exchange for Newton, the Panthers will be bringing in rookie running back, Todd Gurley (73/83), Trumaine Johnson (52/72), and STL 2018 #1.
Sawblade to confirm. Thank you everyone for being patient as I sorted this out, and for the fun of making so many good offers. I was bummed to miss out on the Rams when the league opened, but now I have a few of my favorite pieces.
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Post by ezlee2 on Dec 11, 2015 14:00:03 GMT -5
WOW!
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Post by Sawblade300 on Dec 11, 2015 14:14:22 GMT -5
From the Rams front office, this statement was just released:
"We had no knowledge of this deal. It must have been one of our interns playing a joke with the Panthers brass. Apparently, he learned the pass code to get into the office and started making calls from our GM Sawblade's desk. He was doing this late at night, when everyone else had already left the building. Once we found out about the deal and what he had done, he was promptly called into Sawblade's office and offered a full time job. Well done Timmy. On behalf of Timmy and the St. Louis Rams, we accept this offer. Having a player like Cam Newton on the squad will surely help us in our goal to keep those nasty birds from winning the division."
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Post by freddylamar on Dec 11, 2015 14:21:05 GMT -5
There were many formidable offers made, but I've settled on the one I like the most, and no one else was willing to top the offer: Cam Newton (57/75) is headed to St. Louis, which paired with that crazy defense, will be an extremely competitive team. In exchange for Newton, the Panthers will be bringing in rookie running back, Todd Gurley (73/83), Trumaine Johnson (52/72), and STL 2018 #1. Sawblade to confirm. Thank you everyone for being patient as I sorted this out, and for the fun of making so many good offers. I was bummed to miss out on the Rams when the league opened, but now I have a few of my favorite pieces. Congrats to both teams! Would love to have any of the players in this trade. What a blockbuster to start the league!!! |
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Post by stevene on Dec 11, 2015 16:21:15 GMT -5
Wow. What a trade. More than we were willing to give up...
I didn't want to end up being Kevin Costner in the 1st half of draft day -- giving up 3 #1 picks for one player, no matter how good he is.
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bobby11
Special Teamer
Former Panthers GM (2015)
Posts: 64
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Post by bobby11 on Dec 11, 2015 16:36:04 GMT -5
The movie infuriated me. The only people who would be interested in a movie about the NFL draft are people who would require the movie to be somewhat realistic. These are the moves that were made:
Seattle swaps #1 overall for #7 overall and first rounders in next two years with Cleveland.
Sure, that could happen. But then they took a guy who was projected to go around 15-20 with the 1st overall pick. If the Bears traded up in 2015 for the #1 overall pick then took Bud Dupree, their GM would have not only been fired on the spot, he would have been force fed his own turds, then burned alive.
Jacksonville moves #6 overall (with the best QB in 10 years still on the board!) to Cleveland for three second round picks.
LOLLLLLLLLLLL! Jacksonville's GM is just as dead as Chicago's GM.
Then the Browns trades #6 to Seattle for #7 overall, plus the two 1st rounders they traded earlier, and Devin Hester
Not nearly as bad, but Seattle's GM would definitely be fired.
What's more is Andrew Luck was sitting on the board and no one traded up for him at #2, #3, #4, or #5. So thats another 15 GMs who are fired right on the spot for severe omission.
So let's review. Two murdered GM's, 16 fired GMs. Good movie.
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Post by stevene on Dec 11, 2015 16:41:59 GMT -5
Why are trying to infuse reality into Hollywood? Quit disrupting our kwan with that accurate analysis.
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Post by Nick on Dec 11, 2015 16:59:54 GMT -5
Wow, great deal for the Rams. Newton is worth all of that. I wouldn't move Wilson for double that. Looks like the West is going to be dog fight.
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Post by Sawblade300 on Dec 11, 2015 17:15:24 GMT -5
Just hoping to stay close to the Hawks
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Post by king171717 on Dec 11, 2015 18:46:07 GMT -5
This looks like a hell of a deal for the Rams. It was quite entertaining.
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bobby11
Special Teamer
Former Panthers GM (2015)
Posts: 64
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Post by bobby11 on Dec 11, 2015 20:08:51 GMT -5
I understand the general sentiment on top quarterbacks in this game, so I am not shocked by the reaction on this trade, but I disagree with the strategy. I design strategy board games, and one of the most important concepts to build into your games is to reward the person who zigs when other people zag. Otherwise there is just one clear strategy and the game isn't replayable. When you play single player mode, the computer's "zag" is to under value top quarterbacks, so they are easy to acquire, and the zig winning single player strategy is to grab that too qb for a good value of draft picks traded. In multi player mode, it is my belief that everyone overreacts to the single player strategy, which makes that the league zag, meaning that if I want to win, I need to zag, and take advantage of the overspending on these qbs.
I quantify player value by translating each player to the draft picks that could be acquired by trading them on the open market. If cam were to be traded, he is worth a 1.1, clearly, but his contract makes it so that his value is significantly less. The money saved from ridding myself of cam's cap room will buy me a player good enough to be traded for an early 2nd round pick. Todd gurley would go 1.2 in a typical draft if everyone knew every rating. Trumaine Johnson loses his controlled cost after this season, but with 72 potential at CB, he would still go for a late teens first. i estimate the Rams 1st as a early twenty 1st. So would I deal an expensive 26 year old 1.1 valued qb for 1.2, 1.17, 1.22, and 2.5? Yep, any day.
Consider then, Bill James theory of above replacement value. Acquiring this top end talent at CB and rb moves my previous starters into very strong depth players, or enables me to deal them to fill positions of need. This allowed me to grab two young quality wide receivers, who should help EJ Manuel put up 2750 yards, whereas cam newton with 40 and 30 rated wide receivers would likely only produce 3500 yards and another 250 above his replacement, Manuel, on the ground. So I lose 750 in the air, 500 on the ground, but the upgrade from Stewart to Gurley is worth about 750 yards itself. This theorem expands over the next 10 seasons, where St. Louis has Newton and Carolina has gurley, so the question is, does trumaine Johnson, the player I acquire with the 1st, and the players I pick up by trading Jonathan Stewart and Charles Tillman combine to prevent over 250 yards per season. I clearly believe yes, as I completed the trade. Good luck to saw blade, and j hope you enjoy having Newton. I am just explaining my reasoning so no one thinks I handed anyone a pro bowl qb without a strategy. What's more is that I am a Rams fan and love Todd gurley so I'll have even more enjoyment by owning him for 10 seasons.
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Post by maynard on Dec 11, 2015 20:29:39 GMT -5
Really cool having such strategic thinking in this league and for the rest of us to have the opportunity to watch how it works out in the long run. I also agree that it's fun to try something out that's other than the norm. Who knows, maybe once upon a time, some caveman got clubbed across the back of the head cause he wasn't hunting with all the others. He wasn't doing what was the widely excepted norm for survival. Instead, right up until his demise, he was crouched over some dead leaves; rubbing sticks together.
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Post by king171717 on Dec 11, 2015 20:40:51 GMT -5
I understand the general sentiment on top quarterbacks in this game, so I am not shocked by the reaction on this trade, but I disagree with the strategy. I design strategy board games, and one of the most important concepts to build into your games is to reward the person who zigs when other people zag. Otherwise there is just one clear strategy and the game isn't replayable. When you play single player mode, the computer's "zag" is to under value top quarterbacks, so they are easy to acquire, and the zig winning single player strategy is to grab that too qb for a good value of draft picks traded. In multi player mode, it is my belief that everyone overreacts to the single player strategy, which makes that the league zag, meaning that if I want to win, I need to zag, and take advantage of the overspending on these qbs. I quantify player value by translating each player to the draft picks that could be acquired by trading them on the open market. If cam were to be traded, he is worth a 1.1, clearly, but his contract makes it so that his value is significantly less. The money saved from ridding myself of cam's cap room will buy me a player good enough to be traded for an early 2nd round pick. Todd gurley would go 1.2 in a typical draft if everyone knew every rating. Trumaine Johnson loses his controlled cost after this season, but with 72 potential at CB, he would still go for a late teens first. i estimate the Rams 1st as a early twenty 1st. So would I deal an expensive 26 year old 1.1 valued qb for 1.2, 1.17, 1.22, and 2.5? Yep, any day. Consider then, Bill James theory of above replacement value. Acquiring this top end talent at CB and rb moves my previous starters into very strong depth players, or enables me to deal them to fill positions of need. This allowed me to grab two young quality wide receivers, who should help EJ Manuel put up 2750 yards, whereas cam newton with 40 and 30 rated wide receivers would likely only produce 3500 yards and another 250 above his replacement, Manuel, on the ground. So I lose 750 in the air, 500 on the ground, but the upgrade from Stewart to Gurley is worth about 750 yards itself. This theorem expands over the next 10 seasons, where St. Louis has Newton and Carolina has gurley, so the question is, does trumaine Johnson, the player I acquire with the 1st, and the players I pick up by trading Jonathan Stewart and Charles Tillman combine to prevent over 250 yards per season. I clearly believe yes, as I completed the trade. Good luck to saw blade, and j hope you enjoy having Newton. I am just explaining my reasoning so no one thinks I handed anyone a pro bowl qb without a strategy. What's more is that I am a Rams fan and love Todd gurley so I'll have even more enjoyment by owning him for 10 seasons. Love the breakdown! Way to have guts and go for it! |
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Post by ezlee2 on Dec 11, 2015 22:18:10 GMT -5
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Post by Nick on Dec 12, 2015 3:29:39 GMT -5
I understand the general sentiment on top quarterbacks in this game, so I am not shocked by the reaction on this trade, but I disagree with the strategy. I design strategy board games, and one of the most important concepts to build into your games is to reward the person who zigs when other people zag. Otherwise there is just one clear strategy and the game isn't replayable. When you play single player mode, the computer's "zag" is to under value top quarterbacks, so they are easy to acquire, and the zig winning single player strategy is to grab that too qb for a good value of draft picks traded. In multi player mode, it is my belief that everyone overreacts to the single player strategy, which makes that the league zag, meaning that if I want to win, I need to zag, and take advantage of the overspending on these qbs. I quantify player value by translating each player to the draft picks that could be acquired by trading them on the open market. If cam were to be traded, he is worth a 1.1, clearly, but his contract makes it so that his value is significantly less. The money saved from ridding myself of cam's cap room will buy me a player good enough to be traded for an early 2nd round pick. Todd gurley would go 1.2 in a typical draft if everyone knew every rating. Trumaine Johnson loses his controlled cost after this season, but with 72 potential at CB, he would still go for a late teens first. i estimate the Rams 1st as a early twenty 1st. So would I deal an expensive 26 year old 1.1 valued qb for 1.2, 1.17, 1.22, and 2.5? Yep, any day. Consider then, Bill James theory of above replacement value. Acquiring this top end talent at CB and rb moves my previous starters into very strong depth players, or enables me to deal them to fill positions of need. This allowed me to grab two young quality wide receivers, who should help EJ Manuel put up 2750 yards, whereas cam newton with 40 and 30 rated wide receivers would likely only produce 3500 yards and another 250 above his replacement, Manuel, on the ground. So I lose 750 in the air, 500 on the ground, but the upgrade from Stewart to Gurley is worth about 750 yards itself. This theorem expands over the next 10 seasons, where St. Louis has Newton and Carolina has gurley, so the question is, does trumaine Johnson, the player I acquire with the 1st, and the players I pick up by trading Jonathan Stewart and Charles Tillman combine to prevent over 250 yards per season. I clearly believe yes, as I completed the trade. Good luck to saw blade, and j hope you enjoy having Newton. I am just explaining my reasoning so no one thinks I handed anyone a pro bowl qb without a strategy. What's more is that I am a Rams fan and love Todd gurley so I'll have even more enjoyment by owning him for 10 seasons.
No problem with the trade, your team, your call. But I do think your evaluation process is off. Your trying to pigeon hole players into where they would be drafted. Cam is a unique talent. You would be extremely lucky to get a player like him at 1.1. Extremely. Therefore I think it is better to look at the players on a points value system, rather than where they would be drafted.
I would put Cam right around 5,000, absolute minimum. The guy is going to be extremely influential in terms of bring success to a franchise. I think coming back the other way you have around 4,000 points.
Also factor in the huge bonus hit you took. About $18 million I think. Plus the salaries the players you acquired, and will acquire, will want going forward. I certainly don't see any financial gain for you.
You also have to factor in the loss in cohesion, and the time it will take you to gain that back.
The yardage calculations don't work for me either. For Gurley to get you an extra 750 yards he would need to average an extra 2.0 yards per carry based on 375 carries on a season? You didn't factor in extra sacks, extra turnovers off Manual either?
Ultimately time will tell, if you win great. You can justify everything. For me it has set you back. But that is the fun of the game. You got us talking and excited, so that is great for the league whatever happens.
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