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Post by bylanta on Apr 10, 2022 1:01:22 GMT -5
Nick,
I was curious what stats/metrics are you looking at when determining special teams prowess or lack thereof?
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Post by Nick on Apr 10, 2022 2:53:11 GMT -5
Nick, I was curious what stats/metrics are you looking at when determining special teams prowess or lack thereof? Very good question. I am not looking at Kickers or Punters, I think the influence of the K and P is huge when we look at kicking and punting success. In my mind I am putting them in a different category. Which I can appreciate doesn't sit with conventional thinking. When I talk about ST, I am addressing the ST bars. More specifically who is "encouraged" on the team. I believe that set of players is more important than the ability of a KR or PR when looking at your return yardage. Wild guess maybe 30% is on the returner. KR and PR coverage is a great measure of the aspect I am referring to. I probably do value Kickers and Punters higher than most. Particularly Punters. I am looking for a stud Punter mid 2nd onwards, not the 3rd. Kickers more late 3rd. We were in a sticky cap situation hence my current crop is poor. I don't like the current set up and would rather more cap was distributed towards that area. One of the my main points I harp on about is if you have any nothing players on your roster, bring in some hopefully smart big red ST bars guys. In a recent study we published in a season preview I walked away thinking the value is somewhere in the ballpark of an exceptional affinity. Depending on the size of the ST upgrade, and where the EA is on a team. Offense seems to impact more than Defense affinity wise. But the ST pickup is quick and painless, no need to worry about leaders, and the chemistry dance. I believe chemistry has more upside potential, but the restrictions it brings is a big downside. ST pickups are just quick and painless.
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Post by julioriddols on Apr 10, 2022 5:31:53 GMT -5
I think elite returners will put up elite numbers usually, but the ones who have both elite return bars and a high ST bar seem to be a level ahead of their companions. ST and return bars seem to stack when it comes to returner performance IMO. Chance Monroe is exhibit A for me.
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Post by Nick on Apr 10, 2022 6:32:53 GMT -5
I think elite returners will put up elite numbers usually, but the ones who have both elite return bars and a high ST bar seem to be a level ahead of their companions. ST and return bars seem to stack when it comes to returner performance IMO. Chance Monroe is exhibit A for me. I have seen numerous elite return guys do very little with poor ST units. On the flip side average returners can look awesome with elite ST units. I would take the blocking over the individual returner all day. But both would be ideal.
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Post by Nick on Apr 10, 2022 6:38:46 GMT -5
I think elite returners will put up elite numbers usually, but the ones who have both elite return bars and a high ST bar seem to be a level ahead of their companions. ST and return bars seem to stack when it comes to returner performance IMO. Chance Monroe is exhibit A for me. Looking at Monroe it is very noticeable how his career has taken off since he joined the Bengals. He is playing far and away better as a PR and KR now than he did at any point for Houston. I would point to the quality for the ST blocking for that.
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Post by squirrel on Apr 10, 2022 6:41:04 GMT -5
Great listen guys. I was a bit surprised with the start our team made this time around…we’re seeing the mean reversion now I think
As for the division between Quik and me, basically all the good bits are Quik and I’m the other stuff
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Post by julioriddols on Apr 10, 2022 6:48:28 GMT -5
I think elite returners will put up elite numbers usually, but the ones who have both elite return bars and a high ST bar seem to be a level ahead of their companions. ST and return bars seem to stack when it comes to returner performance IMO. Chance Monroe is exhibit A for me. I have seen numerous elite return guys do very little with poor ST units. On the flip side average returners can look awesome with elite ST units. I would take the blocking over the individual returner all day. But both would be ideal. This is kinda what I was getting at, the more you can stack those bars the better you'll be. Your returners ST and return bars, the other ST guys, and then their intelligence. Intelligence is really important on kick and punt returns IMO. Someone needs to study how much difference it makes in the return game to be able to avoid those holding calls and other devastating penalties that often erase good returns. I'm gonna try really hard to make our ST as good as it can be so Monroe can eat as a return man, because he's been good for a lot of extra "hidden yards" that don't show up on the total offense stat sheet. Edit: another thing about Monroe that attracted me was his relative lack of fumbles despite being a full time return man his whole career and also catching a decent amount of passes. Sure hands are another underrated feature if you can find it in a return guy. I'd probably take a guy who gets me 10 per return on punts but never fumbles over a guy who gets me 15-20 per and fumbles 6-8 times a year.
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Post by Nick on Apr 10, 2022 7:09:20 GMT -5
Yeah totally agree on the points about fumbles and intelligence. I am not convinced on the ST bar helping a returner in terms of yardage. I think we are playing by feel on a lot of this stuff, as there hasn't been the testing in this area.
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Post by julioriddols on Apr 10, 2022 7:24:08 GMT -5
Yeah, definitely feel, but anecdotal evidence has always seemed to support this for me. The elite return guys who also have good ST bars are super rare but they seem like they are universally among the most productive return men no matter their situation. I am also a believer that if you lack quality return bars, putting a guy with a high ST bar there is the next best thing, but requires a lot more help to be anything better than average.
It is hard to test because the sample sizes are always pretty small and the volatility of the numbers is ultra high. Would probably take like 100 sims of the same season with injuries off and very strict controls in place.
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quiksand
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Post by quiksand on Apr 10, 2022 16:16:21 GMT -5
I think I am a/the main source of the recent chatter about ratings of 0 or 100 being special and suggesting a true value outside the 0-100 range. I stick with that, despite a lack of testing or other strong evidence...so no, I can't win and won't enter a shouting match over it. I just have my reasons for believing it's so, and I mentally cherish a 100 rating materially higher than a 95, and same for a 0 <<< 5.
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quiksand
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Bench Warmer
Jets Co-GM
Posts: 401
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Post by quiksand on Apr 10, 2022 16:16:42 GMT -5
And thanks for the enjoyable listen, gentlemen, as usual.
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Post by bylanta on Apr 10, 2022 17:36:43 GMT -5
I think I am a/the main source of the recent chatter about ratings of 0 or 100 being special and suggesting a true value outside the 0-100 range. I stick with that, despite a lack of testing or other strong evidence...so no, I can't win and won't enter a shouting match over it. I just have my reasons for believing it's so, and I mentally cherish a 100 rating materially higher than a 95, and same for a 0 <<< 5. If I promise not to shout, will you enter a conversation about it? Just curious how your coaches scouting bars affect this idea. Say if your coach has bad scouting, do you still value the 100 or does this idea require having more accurate scouts?
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quiksand
Franchise Owner
Bench Warmer
Jets Co-GM
Posts: 401
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Post by quiksand on Apr 10, 2022 19:10:58 GMT -5
There is scouting error in the game, so a guy with a "true" rating of 70 might appear variously as a 68 or 65 by different scouts. The younger the more significant the error. So... there's some imperfection we have to navigate around.
That said... it's not completely certain if a guy has a rating like 98 whether he's a 100 or a 98. But my point is that guys who appear all the way minned or maxed out... stone ZERO or ONE HUNDRED... I think these guys have a real chance to actually have a true rating outside the 0-100 scale. I guess there might be some way to back this out a bit from the composite ratings... if the real rating is indeed used there rather than the advertised 0/100.
Anyway... when I see a guy with an important rating of 100, I mentally figure it as if it were a 110, and value him accordingly. So, in my book, 96=>96, but 100=>110.
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